Nord Stream 2 and Why Renewables Can Solve Political Problems

For Germany, a major concern of national relevance is maintaining a reliable and consistent supply of energy sources. Over the last several years, circumstances in Germany have called into question just how secure and reliable some of their energy sources are and will be in the future. Greenhouse gasses are not only bad for the environment but they can also create problems in geopolitics. When nations depend on other ones for gas supplies, political tensions can quickly escalate. As seen in the case of Germany, environmental factors are not the only incentives to develop renewable sources. Geopolitical conditions also encourage nations to increase their reliance on renewable energy.

Unlike the United States which is rich in natural gas resources, Germany is forced to import – 92% of the gas consumed in Germany comes from outside the country. According to an article from Forbes, “The few gas fields that Germany has will likely be completely depleted within the next decade.” (Source.) In addition, Germany made a decision following the Japanese Fukushima nuclear crises of 2011 to eventually close down all of its nuclear power plants. This decision was encouraged by protests and widespread public support. During that year, the German Environment Minister stated that “It’s definite, the latest end for the last three nuclear power plants is 2022. There will be no clause for revision” (Source).

(Source).

The graph above represents the break down of German energy consumption by fuel in 2017. From this information, it is easy to tell that Germany is dealing with some pressure regarding future energy demands. By 2022, nuclear power will make up 0% of this graph. German gas reserves will be totally exhausted by 2028. In addition, the German government has made significant commitments to reduce carbon emissions within the country. If Germany is able to burn less coal and more natural gas, they will help themselves reduce their carbon footprint significantly. The video below explains the science behind why natural gas is cleaner than coal.

Germany’s chief executive of energy and water industries stated in 2017 that a “clear commitment to gas” will play an essential role in enabling Germany to realize its climate goals. (Source).

So, Germany must find a reliable and economical way of sourcing more natural gas. Geographically, there is one obvious provider: Russia. Russia is the largest holder of natural gas reserves in the world. Within Russia’s reserves are an estimated 1,688 trillion cubic feet of natural gas – which adds up to a full quarter of the world’s total supply. 80% of Russia’s natural gas output is controlled by Gazprom, a state-run company (source).  Simply put, the cheapest and most physically convenient country for Germany to purchase gas from is Russia. As of right now, 50%-75% of Germany’s gas imports are Russian. Some of that gas is transported through a pipeline in the Baltic Sea that was inaugurated in 2011 (Source). 

But because Germany needs to increase the amount of gas they import, they need to think of new ways to get it.  The current plan is to build another pipeline from Russia. In May of 2018, the Russian state-owned gas company Gazprom began construction on “Nord Stream 2,” another gas pipeline which will run under the Baltic Sea from Vyborg, Russia to the German port of Greifswald. The German government has ensured that the cost of the project ($11.1 billion USD) will be paid for completely by private companies (source). When completed, the pipeline will run for 1,200 kilometers. The existing pipeline runs along the same route, and that why the new one has already been named “Nord Stream 2.” This project is significant because it will double the amount of gas Germany and the EU receives from Russia as European countries transition to a more natural-gas-based capacity (Source).

If this project is to be completed, there will be many benefits. Germany will be able to worry less about energy insecurity – by importing sufficient quantities of gas as their own reserves dry up and as their demand for gas increases. This will enable the Germans to reduce their carbon emissions by burning less coal as well. When you do this math, it sounds great. So why has The Economist labeled Nord Stream 2 “the world’s most controversial energy project?” (Source)

It comes down to politics and national security. Over the last half decade, major concerns have arisen in Europe and the West over Russian aggression and the Kremlin’s aspirations. In March 2014, European nations grew anxious over Russia’s decision to annex the Ukranian peninsula of Crimea, (Ukraine is a member of the European Union). Russia’s aggression has subsequently destabilized Eastern Ukraine, generating more nervousness in Germany and other EU countries (Source). In July of 2014, a Malaysian Airline flight carrying civilian passengers was shot down over Ukraine by pro-Russian forces using a Russian missile (Source). Reports that the Russian government has sought to meddle in Western democratic elections have further alarmed Germany and the rest of the West.

Kirsten Westphal, an energy analyst for the German Institute for International and Security Affairs stated in July, “For many people in the West, the idea that Russia is a dependable partner has gone. There is doubt: given all the geopolitical tensions, should we further expand our energy relationship with Russia?” (Source). Westphal’s point is indicative of prevalent sentiments in Germany and the EU about plans to rely more on Russian gas in the coming years. However, at this point, Nord Stream 2 will almost certainly be completed. Ships have been laying deep sea pipe in the Baltic Sea despite critics in Europe and the United States. According to a Forbes article from September 5th, the pipeline does not need authorization from the EU; just the countries which it passes through. As of now, Finland, Sweeden, and Germany are all on board. Denmark is the only country which has yet approved, and if they should not, Gazprom will change the route so that Denmark’s authorization is not required (Source).

In the short run, Germany most hope that they do not regret becoming largely reliant on the influx of Russian gas. But in the long run, there is a much better solution: renewables. For one, if Germans are serious about their goal to cut carbon emissions by 95% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels, they must make significant progress in renewables developments. Renewables offer another benefit that is more relevant to the topic of this blog. If Germans can increase their renewable capacity – for electricity and other uses – then they will not have to rely on a potential enemy to sell them energy. Fortunately, the IEA graph below paints a hopeful picture for the status of renewables in Germany

(Source).

Germany’s primary objectives in energy management are to maintain stable sources of energy and to reduce carbon emissions, ultimately, to zero. Of course, renewables are central to the goal of becoming carbon neutral. But one cannot overlook geopolitical conditions which make renewables favorable. If Germany can increase their renewable capacity, they will not have to worry about relying on a  Russain state-controlled gas supply to meet their needs. The benefits are spectacular: a cleaner and safer world.


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One response to “Nord Stream 2 and Why Renewables Can Solve Political Problems”

  1. Sam Rosenblatt Avatar
    Sam Rosenblatt

    Looks like a great start! One thing I think that would help the flow of the article is to hyperlink your sources to the information itself instead of saying (source) with the link afterwards. Also, I think the second half of the blog feels a bit long because there is no multimedia, so maybe think about adding some chart/video/picture that will help break up this section. You could also be a bit more specific at some points, but you make great use of transitions that make the article easy to read. Great work!

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